Article for the Paris Centre for Democracy (PADEM) on the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil.
Full article: https://pademcentre.org/publications/lula-comeback-brazil-2026
Executive Summary
- Written off after the first round, Lula won Brazil’s runoff by more than
four million votes, carried by an online mobilization of unprecedented
scale. - Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere argues that the real test begins in January: a
younger government team, a modern communication strategy,
accountability for the far right’s criminal elements and strong future
candidates within the governing bloc
Pessoal, URGENTE!!
4 October came as a cold shower for about half of Brazil’s voters. While virtually all big polling institutions (Quaest, Datafolha, Atlas) had predicted a victory for incumbent Lula (PT) by about 2%, the result turned out to be exactly the opposite. Far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro won with a margin of 47.03% to 45.16%. Everything therefore pointed to Bolsonaro winning the runoff election on 25 October, because all other candidates who received more than 1% were right-wing candidates (Cury, Caiado, Santos). If the voters of these candidates had voted for Bolsonaro, he would have won with about 53%. Since the parliamentary elections (Chamber of Deputies and two thirds of the Senate) held at the same time resulted in a clear majority for right-wing parties, it looked as if the wave of far-right extremism was spilling over into Brazil as well.
The campaign until the first round had reached a point where the right and the far right dominated the internet, Bolsonaro sharply attacked Lula, and Lula’s campaign relied mainly on mass rallies, some drawing hundreds of thousands of supporters. That wasn’t enough, and it was a campaign of the past.
Full article: https://pademcentre.org/publications/lula-comeback-brazil-2026
Article as pdf: blob:https://pademcentre.org/6fdb3e95-27cc-427e-bc00-4d183e252018
