{"id":1742,"date":"2026-11-02T11:58:31","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T10:58:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/?p=1742"},"modified":"2026-11-02T12:01:18","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T11:01:18","slug":"lulas-comeback-was-the-easy-part","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/2026\/11\/02\/lulas-comeback-was-the-easy-part\/","title":{"rendered":"Lula&#8217;s Comeback Was the Easy Part"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Article for the Paris Centre for Democracy (PADEM) on the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Full article: <a href=\"https:\/\/pademcentre.org\/publications\/lula-comeback-brazil-2026\">https:\/\/pademcentre.org\/publications\/lula-comeback-brazil-2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Executive Summary<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Written off after the first round, Lula won Brazil&#8217;s runoff by more than<br>four million votes, carried by an online mobilization of unprecedented<br>scale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ekrem Eddy G\u00fczeldere argues that the real test begins in January: a<br>younger government team, a modern communication strategy,<br>accountability for the far right&#8217;s criminal elements and strong future<br>candidates within the governing bloc<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/lula-reelected-2026-hero-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1743\" srcset=\"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/lula-reelected-2026-hero-1024x559.webp 1024w, https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/lula-reelected-2026-hero-300x164.webp 300w, https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/lula-reelected-2026-hero-768x420.webp 768w, https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/lula-reelected-2026-hero-1536x839.webp 1536w, https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/lula-reelected-2026-hero-600x328.webp 600w, https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/lula-reelected-2026-hero.webp 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pessoal, URGENTE!!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">4 October came as a cold shower for about half of Brazil&#8217;s voters. While virtually all big polling institutions (Quaest, Datafolha, Atlas) had <a href=\"https:\/\/noticias.uol.com.br\/eleicoes\/agregador-de-pesquisas-eleitorais\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">predicted<\/a> a victory for incumbent Lula (PT) by about 2%, the result <a href=\"https:\/\/resultados.tse.jus.br\/oficial\/app\/index.html#\/eleicao\/resultados\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">turned out<\/a> to be exactly the opposite. Far-right candidate Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro won with a margin of 47.03% to 45.16%. Everything therefore pointed to Bolsonaro winning the runoff election on 25 October, because all other candidates who received more than 1% were right-wing candidates (Cury, Caiado, Santos). If the voters of these candidates had voted for Bolsonaro, he would have won with about 53%. Since the parliamentary elections (Chamber of Deputies and two thirds of the Senate) held at the same time resulted in a clear majority for right-wing parties, it looked as if the wave of far-right extremism was spilling over into Brazil as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The campaign until the first round had reached a point where the right and the far right dominated the internet, Bolsonaro sharply attacked Lula, and Lula&#8217;s campaign relied mainly on mass rallies, some drawing hundreds of thousands of supporters. That wasn&#8217;t enough, and it was a campaign of the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Full article: <a href=\"https:\/\/pademcentre.org\/publications\/lula-comeback-brazil-2026\">https:\/\/pademcentre.org\/publications\/lula-comeback-brazil-2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Article as pdf: blob:<a href=\"https:\/\/pademcentre.org\/6fdb3e95-27cc-427e-bc00-4d183e252018\">https:\/\/pademcentre.org\/6fdb3e95-27cc-427e-bc00-4d183e252018<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Article for the Paris Centre for Democracy (PADEM) on the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil. Full article: https:\/\/pademcentre.org\/publications\/lula-comeback-brazil-2026 Executive Summary Pessoal, URGENTE!! 4 October came as a cold shower for about half of Brazil&#8217;s voters. While virtually all big polling institutions (Quaest, Datafolha, Atlas) had predicted a victory for incumbent Lula (PT) by about 2%, the result turned out to be exactly the opposite. Far-right candidate Fl\u00e1vio <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/2026\/11\/02\/lulas-comeback-was-the-easy-part\/\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1743,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bluesky_dont_syndicate":"","_bluesky_syndication_accounts":"","_bluesky_syndication_text":"","two_page_speed":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[192,38,59,191,283,284],"class_list":["post-1742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-journalism","tag-bolsonaro","tag-brazil","tag-elections","tag-lula","tag-pl","tag-pt"],"wps_subtitle":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1742"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1742\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1745,"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1742\/revisions\/1745"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guzeldere.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}